Alabama St.

Conference:	SWAC
Expected RPI:	333.0
Current RPI:	333
Expected SOS:	339
Current SOS:	339
Current Record:	8-23
Expected Record:	8-23
Current Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Conf Record:	8-11
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-6
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-13
Current OOC Record:	0-12
Expected OOC Record:	0-12
Expected OOC RPI:	317
Expected OOC SOS:	69

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
8-23	333.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Alabama St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Mississippi St. (73.0)	SEC	A	96-68	L	0%
11-12	Iowa (157.0)	B10	A	92-58	L	0%
11-14	South Dakota St. (37.0)	Sum	A	94-63	L	0%
11-17	Oregon (72.0)	P12	A	114-56	L	0%
11-20	Chattanooga (304.0)	SC	A	67-50	L	0%
11-21	Savannah St. (197.0)	MEAC	N	97-101	L	0%
11-27	Cincinnati (6.0)	Amer	A	83-51	L	0%
11-30	Jacksonville St. (149.0)	OVC	A	77-69	L	0%
12-12	Tennessee St. (189.0)	OVC	H	45-64	L	0%
12-16	Winthrop (173.0)	BSth	H	80-88	L	0%
12-21	Louisiana Tech (192.0)	CUSA	N	74-62	L	0%
12-22	Liberty (211.0)	BSth	N	70-87	L	0%
1-1	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	A	82-73	L	0%
1-3	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	A	66-74	W	100%
1-6	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	H	63-46	W	100%
1-8	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	H	68-94	L	0%
1-13	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	H	70-67	W	100%
1-20	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	A	63-61	L	0%
1-22	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	A	81-64	L	0%
1-27	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	H	80-86	L	0%
1-29	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	H	82-97	L	0%
2-3	Mississippi Valley St. (349.0)	SWAC	A	85-89	W	100%
2-5	Arkansas Pine Bluff (307.0)	SWAC	A	59-65	W	100%
2-10	Alabama A&M (350.0)	SWAC	A	50-69	W	100%
2-17	Southern (315.0)	SWAC	H	67-71	L	0%
2-19	Alcorn St. (348.0)	SWAC	H	82-62	W	100%
2-24	Prairie View A&M (247.0)	SWAC	A	80-74	L	0%
2-26	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	A	95-77	L	0%
3-1	Jackson St. (330.0)	SWAC	H	62-60	W	100%
3-3	Grambling St. (249.0)	SWAC	H	64-66	L	0%
3-6	Texas Southern (222.0)	SWAC	A	90-76	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Alabama St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Alabama St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Alabama St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Alabama St.	SWAC	26.35	26.35	27.97	27.97	-11.61	-11.61
Texas Southern	SWAC	5.79	5.79	38.71	38.71	-1.31	-1.31
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	4.30	4.30	39.39	39.39	-0.91	-0.91
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	4.25	4.25	41.94	41.94	-0.69	-0.69
Southern	SWAC	4.22	4.22	37.93	37.93	-1.02	-1.02
Jackson St.	SWAC	4.17	4.17	32.14	32.14	-1.49	-1.49
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	4.14	4.14	13.33	13.33	-3.04	-3.04
Alcorn St.	SWAC	4.13	4.13	23.08	23.08	-2.22	-2.22
Grambling St.	SWAC	4.11	4.11	53.57	53.57	0.29	0.29
Alabama A&M	SWAC	4.09	4.09	10.34	10.34	-3.25	-3.25
Jacksonville St.	OVC	1.77	1.77	61.29	61.29	0.40	0.40
Iowa	B10	1.75	1.75	40.62	40.62	-0.33	-0.33
Oregon	P12	1.73	1.73	63.64	63.64	0.47	0.47
Cincinnati	Amer	1.71	1.71	87.88	87.88	1.30	1.30
Liberty	BSth	1.67	1.67	53.33	53.33	0.11	0.11
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	1.67	1.67	46.67	46.67	-0.11	-0.11
Winthrop	BSth	1.66	1.66	55.56	55.56	0.18	0.18
Chattanooga	SC	1.66	1.66	23.33	23.33	-0.89	-0.89
Tennessee St.	OVC	1.66	1.66	44.44	44.44	-0.18	-0.18
Mississippi St.	SEC	1.66	1.66	64.52	64.52	0.48	0.48
Savannah St.	MEAC	1.66	1.66	41.38	41.38	-0.29	-0.29
South Dakota St.	Sum	1.64	1.64	79.31	79.31	0.96	0.96
Baylor	B12	0.21	0.21	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Samford	SC	0.21	0.21	26.67	26.67	-0.10	-0.10
UAB	CUSA	0.20	0.20	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.20	0.20	27.59	27.59	-0.09	-0.09
Radford	BSth	0.16	0.16	62.50	62.50	0.04	0.04
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.16	0.16	54.84	54.84	0.02	0.02
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.16	0.16	31.03	31.03	-0.06	-0.06
Georgia St.	SB	0.15	0.15	68.75	68.75	0.06	0.06
Wyoming	MWC	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Utah	P12	0.15	0.15	63.33	63.33	0.04	0.04
Houston	Amer	0.15	0.15	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Washington St.	P12	0.14	0.14	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.14	0.14	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Campbell	BSth	0.14	0.14	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.14	0.14	61.29	61.29	0.03	0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.13	0.13	73.33	73.33	0.06	0.06
Tulane	Amer	0.13	0.13	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Louisiana Monroe	SB	0.13	0.13	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Mercer	SC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.13	0.13	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.13	0.13	40.00	40.00	-0.03	-0.03
Alabama	SEC	0.13	0.13	55.88	55.88	0.02	0.02
Western Carolina	SC	0.13	0.13	36.67	36.67	-0.03	-0.03
Kansas	B12	0.13	0.13	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Michigan	B10	0.13	0.13	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Toledo	MAC	0.12	0.12	66.67	66.67	0.04	0.04
BYU	WCC	0.12	0.12	70.59	70.59	0.05	0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.12	0.12	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Oregon St.	P12	0.12	0.12	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
SMU	Amer	0.12	0.12	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
High Point	BSth	0.11	0.11	40.74	40.74	-0.02	-0.02
Longwood	BSth	0.11	0.11	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
Presbyterian	BSth	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Belmont	OVC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
LSU	SEC	0.11	0.11	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	22.22	22.22	-0.06	-0.06
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.11	0.11	16.67	16.67	-0.07	-0.07
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.11	0.11	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
North Texas	CUSA	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.10	0.10	71.88	71.88	0.05	0.05
Murray St.	OVC	0.10	0.10	82.76	82.76	0.07	0.07
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.10	0.10	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.10	0.10	24.24	24.24	-0.05	-0.05
Marshall	CUSA	0.10	0.10	69.70	69.70	0.04	0.04
Wichita St.	Amer	0.10	0.10	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Texas A&M	SEC	0.10	0.10	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.10	0.10	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Minnesota	B10	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.10	0.10	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
UCF	Amer	0.10	0.10	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
UNLV	MWC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Hawaii	BW	0.09	0.09	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.08	0.08	30.00	30.00	-0.03	-0.03
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.08	0.08	26.67	26.67	-0.04	-0.04
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
VCU	A10	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Central Arkansas	Slnd	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Furman	SC	0.08	0.08	67.74	67.74	0.03	0.03
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.08	0.08	76.67	76.67	0.04	0.04
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Maryland	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.08	0.08	77.42	77.42	0.04	0.04
Ball St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
East Carolina	Amer	0.08	0.08	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.08	0.08	80.65	80.65	0.05	0.05
Mississippi	SEC	0.08	0.08	37.50	37.50	-0.02	-0.02
Akron	MAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
DePaul	BE	0.08	0.08	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Canisius	MAAC	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	15.62	15.62	-0.05	-0.05
North Dakota	BSky	0.07	0.07	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Tulsa	Amer	0.07	0.07	61.29	61.29	0.02	0.02
Clemson	ACC	0.07	0.07	71.88	71.88	0.03	0.03
Gonzaga	WCC	0.07	0.07	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Oakland	Horz	0.07	0.07	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Syracuse	ACC	0.07	0.07	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
TCU	B12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Connecticut	Amer	0.07	0.07	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Memphis	Amer	0.07	0.07	61.76	61.76	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.07	0.07	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
USC	P12	0.07	0.07	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Fresno St.	MWC	0.07	0.07	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Creighton	BE	0.06	0.06	64.52	64.52	0.02	0.02
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Texas	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Auburn	SEC	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Central Michigan	MAC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Denver	Sum	0.05	0.05	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.05	0.05	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Seattle	WAC	0.05	0.05	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
St. Bonaventure	A10	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Colorado St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	32.26	32.26	-0.02	-0.02
Charlotte	CUSA	0.05	0.05	17.86	17.86	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.05	0.05	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
The Citadel	SC	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
UTEP	CUSA	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
UTSA	CUSA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
VMI	SC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Wofford	SC	0.05	0.05	60.00	60.00	0.01	0.01
Drake	MVC	0.05	0.05	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Michigan St.	B10	0.05	0.05	87.88	87.88	0.04	0.04
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
Duquesne	A10	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Kent St.	MAC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.05	0.05	84.38	84.38	0.03	0.03
Missouri	SEC	0.05	0.05	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.05	0.05	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Utah St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Richmond	A10	0.05	0.05	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Indiana	B10	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
New Mexico	MWC	0.05	0.05	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
New Mexico St.	WAC	0.05	0.05	83.33	83.33	0.03	0.03
Penn St.	B10	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.05	0.05	70.00	70.00	0.02	0.02
Arizona	P12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Arizona St.	P12	0.05	0.05	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Washington	P12	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Pacific	WCC	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Santa Clara	WCC	0.05	0.05	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Troy	SB	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Weber St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	60.71	60.71	0.01	0.01
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.03	0.03	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia Southern	SB	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
UC Irvine	BW	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
William & Mary	CAA	0.03	0.03	58.62	58.62	0.00	0.00
Evansville	MVC	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
FIU	CUSA	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
George Mason	A10	0.03	0.03	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Quinnipiac	MAAC	0.03	0.03	36.36	36.36	-0.01	-0.01
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Wake Forest	ACC	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.03	0.03	69.70	69.70	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.03	0.03	67.65	67.65	0.01	0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Green Bay	Horz	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Chicago St.	WAC	0.02	0.02	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Nebraska	B10	0.02	0.02	68.75	68.75	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.02	0.02	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Rutgers	B10	0.02	0.02	42.42	42.42	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.02	0.02	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.02	0.02	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Wisconsin	B10	0.02	0.02	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Boise St.	MWC	0.02	0.02	73.33	73.33	0.01	0.01
California	P12	0.02	0.02	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.02	0.02	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma	B12	0.02	0.02	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Portland St.	BSky	0.02	0.02	56.67	56.67	0.00	0.00
South Florida	Amer	0.02	0.02	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Stanford	P12	0.02	0.02	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Xavier	BE	0.02	0.02	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02